Bear Down Baffa

OK, everyone needs to just calm down for a minute.  Fan reaction is that our season is over after Hanie’s first full game, and if I had a nickle for every person who said they “missed” Cutler, I could afford to pay Forte what he deserves.  Of course you miss him, dumbasses.  Talk about stating the obvious.  We traded 15 draft picks for him, and Caleb Hanie (whom most people wouldn’t recognize if he was hanging out outside Soldierz wearing his own jersey) is an undrafted backup who hadn’t thrown a pass all season.  Were you thinking he was going to step in and we wouldn’t notice Cutler was out?  STFU already.  It’s ridonculous.

Hanie disappeared into “the Black Hole” of Oakland

This loss wasn’t necessarily Hanie’s fault.  Yeah, I said it.  And I’m not alone in that thinking.  We gained 401 total net yards and scored 20 points – 223 yards and 13 points in the second half alone – and out-gained Oakland by a yard per play (6.0 – 5.0) overall.  You can’t ask for more than that in a QB’s first start, especially considering his dismal first quarter, when he was 3-8 (37.5%), 25 yards, 3.1 yards/attempt, 2 INT’s, and a 6.8 QBR.

Hanie had a rough introduction to starting in the NFL

And despite it looking like we were dramatically out-played the entire first half, we were only down 2 points before Hanie’s third pick with 18 seconds left.  But surprisingly, some big first half stats leaned our way.  We led in yardage (178-128), third downs (3 for 7 vs. 1 for 8), sacks (3-2) and return yards (137 to -1).  But we did trail in both interceptions (3-1) and penalties (6 for 51 yards vs. 1 for 4 yards).  And most importantly, points (12-7).

This fan is not only literate, but also prognosticatory – and proud of it

Wait Til We Get our Hanies on You
Considering his limited game experience, I thought Hanie played pretty well once he got through the first half.  He did come out looking like an undrafted rookie in the first quarter, but that was expected.  He had 3 three-and-outs and 2 picks on our first five possessions.  But all QB’s go through some of that, and they learn from it.  And Hanie has a lot to learn from after completing 3 of his first 15 passes to the opposition.  He finished the first half 7-15 (46.7%), 72 yards, 4.8 yds/att, 1 TD, 3 INT’s, and a 43.6 QBR.

Hanie got to know the ground in Oakland fairly well

He quickly showed improvement by not throwing any picks on 21 second half passes.  And he continued to get better, going 10-17 (59%) for 175 yards, 10.3 y/a, and a TD in the fourth quarter, as he led us on 3 scoring drives for a total of 13 points.  He finished 18-36 (50%) for 254 yards, 7.1 y/a, 2 TD’s, 3 INT’s and a 56.9 QBR.  He also threw an 81-yard bomb to Knoxville starting with his back foot in the end zone.  It went about 45 yards in the air and was a perfect strike.  And he almost brought us back in the end.  In all he wasn’t much worse than his counter-part, Carson Palmer, who was playing his 102nd career game and finished 21-37 (56.8%) for 301 yards, 8.1 y/a, 0 TD’s, 1 INT and a 72.0 QBR.  The only major discrepancy:  the 3 INT’s.

Sometimes when you go black, you don’t come back

Behind the QB Numbers
To give you an idea of what can (and should) be expected of QB’s in their first NFL start, here are some numbers to compare with Hanie’s performance.

Numbers of well known QB’s in first career starts:

• Montana (‘79): 5-12 (41%), 36 yds, 3.0 y/a, 0 TD, 0 INT, 49.3 QBR
• P. Manning (‘98): 21-37 (57%), 302 yds, 8.1 y/a, 1 TD, 3 INT, 58.6 QBR
• Stafford (‘09): 16/37 (43%), 205 yds, 5.5 y/a, 1 TD, 3 INT, 27.4 QBR
• Bradford (‘10): 32/55 (58%), 253 yds, 4.6 y/a, 1 TD, 3 INT, 53.1 QBR

Numbers for Lovie’s QB’s in first starts with Bears:

• Orton (‘05): 15-28 (54%), 141 yds, 5.0 y/a, 0 TD, 1 INT, 52.8 QBR
• Griese (‘07): 34-52 (65%), 286 yds, 5.5 y/a, 2 TD, 3 INT, 68.3 QBR (73rd start)
• Cutler (‘09): 17-36 (47%), 277 yds, 7.7 y/a, 1 TD, 4 INT, 43.2 QBR (37th start)
• Tom Collins (‘10): 6-16 (38%), 32 yds, 2 y/a, 0 TD, 4 INT, 6.2 QBR (21st start)

Numbers for Hall of Fame QB’s in first full NFL seasons:

• Elway (‘83): 48%, 6.4 y/a, 7 TD, 14 INT, 54.9 QBR
• S. Young (‘86): 54%, 6.3 y/a, 8 TD, 13 INT, 65.5 QBR
• Aikman (‘89): 52%, 6.0 y/a, 9 TD, 18 INT, 55.9 QBR

Considering these numbers, I’m quite confident we’ll be OK down the stretch.

Cutler to Hanie, “Dude, you do realize you’re supposed to throw to the guys in white, right?”

The Good News
This loss was our first in 48 days.  And it came on the road, on the West Coast, against an AFC team, with a fledgling QB, and it was only by 5 points.  So you could argue it was the best case scenario for a loss, which you can rarely argue.  And Lovie won another challenge that got us a first down call on a third down play.  I believe that’s 2 challenges in a row for him.  Go Lovie!

At halftime: “Damn, why didn’t anyone tell me we were wearing white today?!”

Offense
We ran for 172 yards on only 27 carries (a 6.4 average) even though newborn kangaroos in Australia knew we would focus on the run.  Barber led us with 63 yards on 10 runs (6.3/run), Forte had 59 on 12 (4.9/run) and Hanie showed some mobility by picking up 50 on 5 (10/run) – including 3 for first downs.

Hanie ran for his life – and 50 yards

Knoxville made up for falling down (again) and missing a pass thrown right to him by catching Hanie’s first regular season TD pass.  He also returned a kickoff 56 yards that would have led to a TD (we had a second-and-1 on Oakland’s 7) and given us the lead at the end of the half if Hanie hadn’t thrown another pick.  Knoxville finished with 133 yards on 4 kick returns, and 145 yards on 4 receptions, giving him 278 total yards.

Knoxville mimicking “First Down” Williams’ first down signal as he catches a Hanie bomb

Defense
We allowed 341 yards, but only 73 on the ground on 27 carries, a 2.7 average.  We had 4 sacks, but we only got 1 take-away.  And though we gave up 25 points, the Raiders were in our red zone five times, and inside our 10 four times, yet we held them to only one TD.  Overall they didn’t play that poorly, but we needed a better game out of them, especially as it relates to turnovers.  Said Urlacher: “We should have won that football game based on the way our offense played.  We didn’t play well enough on defense.  That’s why we didn’t win.”

The Bears spent the day chasing Oakland – and never caught them

Special Teams
We were out-punted by 10 yards/punt, and Oakland’s Lechler booted an 80-yard punt that sent Hester sprinting backwards to get it.  They also left us inside our 20 three times while we never put Oakland inside theirs.  And despite our 188 yards on kick and punt returns compared to Oakland’s 28, our average starting field position was at our 20 while there’s was at their 34.

Raiders and refs signal to Hanie that it’s safe to come out after halftime

Gould, who is now 5 for 5 from 50+ yards this year, hit a 50 and a 53-yarder.  But he was out-kicked by Oakland’s Janikowski, who was 6 for 6 (a team record) and almost beat us single-handedly, scoring 19 of Oakland’s 25 points.  This was another phase in which we came up short, which contributed (in my humble opinion) to this loss more than Hanie’s shortcomings.

Raider Coach Jackson signals the number of Herman Cain harassment claims – as of game time

Outlook
I still like Hanie.  And I know so many people who’ve commented on how good he always looked in pre-season games.  He should be allowed some time to get his legs under him, and I believe he will.  Said Lovie, “He gave us an opportunity to win at the end on the road against a good defense.  We can build off of this performance.”  Can he win a Super Bowl?  Probably not this year.  But with 5 more games to work out the kinks, he could win a playoff game (or two) depending on when the Butler comes back.

Hanie wondering if he should’ve worn the orange shoes for luck

On the Docket
With Detroit losing to GB and Atlanta winning it’s second in a row, the three of us sit at 7-4.  The next team is the 6-5 Giants (who’ve lost 3 in a row), and then five teams that are 4-7.  We’ve beaten Atlanta and they’ve beaten Detroit.  So if the season ended today, I believe we’d win the first Wild Card and Atlanta the second.  We’d best Detroit via the third tie-breaker (record in common games) by 1 game, we’d beat Atlanta via head-to-head, and Atlanta would beat Detroit via head-to-head.

Here’s to hoping the worst is over for Hanie

We host  4-7 Kansas City on Sunday.  They’ve lost 4 in a row after winning 4 in a row after losing 3 in a row.  Continuing that streak would mean they lose 1 more before winning 6 in a row.  But the latter won’t happen with either their newbie QB Tyler Palko (0 TD’s, 6 INT’s, 50.1 QBR in 6 career games), or their newly acquired veteran Kyle Orton, who hasn’t played since 10/9 when his 21.0 QBR got him benched at halftime for (gulp) Tebow.  They are rated below the Bears in almost every category.  So even with Hanie, I’d say this one is a sure thing.

Hanie – perhaps about to go on a 3-game winning streak

Super Bowl, Super Bears!

© 2011

This entry was posted on Tue, Nov 29, 2011 at 11:59 am and is filed under j) 2011 Posts. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.